Since my most recent op ed on the Russian/Ukraine war, things have been happening fast.
President Biden has reversed the U.S. government’s position and authorized Ukraine to launch U.S. missiles into Russia.
Then Russian President Putin signed into law” a law that “lowered the threshold for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons: If Russia's "territorial integrity" is threatened or if it is attacked by a non-nuclear armed nation (i.e. Ukraine) supported by a nuclear power (such as the US or Britain), Russia can retaliate with nuclear weapons.
Additionally, Russia is now firing new experimental missiles into Ukraine.
This war between Russia and Ukraine has been going on since February 24, 2022. News reports tell us that Russia has been making incremental advances on the battle field. President Trump indicates he will end weapon’s shipments.
So, given the uncertainty, will Ukraine go nuclear?
On Oct. 24, 2024 Ukraine President Zelensky put the nuclear option on the table. Zalensky first reminded the world of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum which was a treaty under which
Ukraine transferred all its nuclear weapons to Russia. In return, Ukraine got guarantees from Russia, the US and the UK that Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity would not be violated. Zelensky that remined his NATO audience of Russia’s bad faith in first seizing Crimea, and then invading Ukraine in February of 2022.
He then laid out Ukraine’s options: “Either we go back to nuclear weapons, or we have to become part of an effective alliance, and NATO is the only one that works” and whose members have avoided wars of aggression since joining.
Zalensky made clear that Ukraine preferred the NATO option.
So, when Zelensky speaks of “going back to being nuclear,” does Ukraine really have that capacity? Is he bluffing?
If you surf the internet, it appears unanimous that Ukraine, which once possessed the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal, has the plutonium and know-how to build atom bombs.
How long would that take? Expert opinions are all over the place. But one says “We have the material, we have the knowledge. If there is an order, we will only need a few weeks until [we produce] the first bomb.” Others say it might be a very dirty atom bomb, but that dirty bombs have the advantage of being deliverable by conventional combat aircraft.
Admittedly, I am a non-expert. But what do I think?
I believe that as long as the battle lines along the front remain relatively stable and Ukraine has the weaponry to maintain stalemate, Ukraine will keep silent and build its nuclear bomb(s). Indeed, they may have already done so. That would guarantee that Ukraine cannot be obliterated without Russia takings nuclear counter-losses unacceptable to Russia.
I believe that President Zalensky is telling the truth when he says NATO membership, or Ukraine goes nuclear.
President Trump has pledged that he quickly intends to negotiate the war’s end. But on what terms?
Is Ukraine willing to cede Crimea to Russia? Is Russia willing to give Crimea back to Ukraine? Is Putin willing to pull out of the eastern portions of Ukraine he now occupies? Will Ukraine demand back those territories that Russia has “annexed?” Will the U.S. end military aid to Ukraine? Will Ukraine demand reparations for the damage to Ukraine that Russia has inflicted?
If President Trump can untie these “Gordian Knots,” I believe he will deserve the Noble Peace Prize.