Will Ukraine Go Nuclear? Has it already Done So?

Since my most recent op ed on the Russian/Ukraine war, things have been happening fast.

President Biden has reversed the U.S. government’s position and authorized Ukraine to launch U.S. missiles into Russia.

Then Russian President Putin signed into law” a law that “lowered the threshold for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons: If Russia's "territorial integrity" is threatened or if it is attacked by a non-nuclear armed nation (i.e. Ukraine) supported by a nuclear power (such as the US or Britain), Russia can retaliate with nuclear weapons.

Additionally, Russia is now firing new experimental missiles into Ukraine.

This war between Russia and Ukraine has been going on since February 24, 2022. News reports tell us that Russia has been making incremental advances on the battle field. President Trump indicates he will end weapon’s shipments.

So, given the uncertainty, will Ukraine go nuclear?

On Oct. 24, 2024 Ukraine President Zelensky put the nuclear option on the table. Zalensky first reminded the world of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum which was a treaty under which

Ukraine transferred all its nuclear weapons to Russia. In return, Ukraine got guarantees from Russia, the US and the UK that Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity would not be violated. Zelensky that remined his NATO audience of Russia’s bad faith in first seizing Crimea, and then invading Ukraine in February of 2022.

He then laid out Ukraine’s options: “Either we go back to nuclear weapons, or we have to become part of an effective alliance, and NATO is the only one that works” and whose members have avoided wars of aggression since joining.

Zalensky made clear that Ukraine preferred the NATO option.

So, when Zelensky speaks of “going back to being nuclear,” does Ukraine really have that capacity? Is he bluffing?

If you surf the internet, it appears unanimous that Ukraine, which once possessed the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal, has the plutonium and know-how to build atom bombs.

How long would that take? Expert opinions are all over the place. But one says “We have the material, we have the knowledge. If there is an order, we will only need a few weeks until [we produce] the first bomb.” Others say it might be a very dirty atom bomb, but that dirty bombs have the advantage of being deliverable by conventional combat aircraft.

Admittedly, I am a non-expert. But what do I think?

I believe that as long as the battle lines along the front remain relatively stable and Ukraine has the weaponry to maintain stalemate, Ukraine will keep silent and build its nuclear bomb(s). Indeed, they may have already done so. That would guarantee that Ukraine cannot be obliterated without Russia takings nuclear counter-losses unacceptable to Russia.

I believe that President Zalensky is telling the truth when he says NATO membership, or Ukraine goes nuclear.

President Trump has pledged that he quickly intends to negotiate the war’s end. But on what terms?

Is Ukraine willing to cede Crimea to Russia? Is Russia willing to give Crimea back to Ukraine? Is Putin willing to pull out of the eastern portions of Ukraine he now occupies? Will Ukraine demand back those territories that Russia has “annexed?” Will the U.S. end military aid to Ukraine? Will Ukraine demand reparations for the damage to Ukraine that Russia has inflicted?

If President Trump can untie these “Gordian Knots,” I believe he will deserve the Noble Peace Prize.

   First  Published in the Moline Dispatch and Rock Island Argus on November 27, 2024.                                                                                                                                               Copyright 2024, John Donald O'Shea

Is Ukraine really “months away” from having its own nukes?

Anybody who has read my op eds knows that I have found little to like about President Biden and his administration. But in his support for Ukraine, I think he has been essentially correct.

Like Biden, I do not believe that Putin merely wants a subservient Ukraine along Russia’s border. His invasion of Ukraine, and his prior invasions into Georgia and Crimea demonstrate Putin’s larger goal is to reconstitute the old USSR.

We can quibble about whether clearer Biden administration statements before Putin’s invasion might have forestalled the invasion, whether U.S. F-16s should have been made available to Ukraine sooner, or whether the limitations of use that be Biden administration placed upon the use of the weapons we have supplied should have been less restrictive. But what Biden has done, has been essentially correct— to keep Putin from devouring a peaceful neighboring state.

President Trump is now on the verge of taking office. He has stated he will cut military aid unless Ukraine engages in peace talks. Trump has warned President Zelensky, “You’re 38 days from losing your allowance.” Presently, we don’t know what Trump has told Putin.

At present, Russia is been making slogging advances in the war. But the cost to Russia in dead and wounded Russian soldiers has been awful. Now, each side is upping the ante. Russia has put N. Koreans into the war zone. Ukraine has seized some Russian territory, and is now manufacturing/using very effective drones.

Russia has frequently warned that it might use its nuclear weapons.

But now, according to a briefing paper prepared for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Ukraine could develop a rudimentary nuclear bomb within months if President Trump withdraws US military assistance. That also suggests Ukraine could develop a nuclear bomb whether or not the US withdraws military assistance. The Times1 writes, quoting from the briefing paper:

“The country would quickly be able to build a basic device from plutonium with a similar technology to the “Fat Man” bomb dropped on Nagasaki in 1945. … “Creating a simple atomic bomb, as the United States did within the framework of the Manhattan Project, would not be a difficult task 80 years later.”

“Ukraine still controls nine operational nuclear reactors and has significant nuclear expertise despite having given up the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal in 1996.

“The weight of reactor plutonium available to Ukraine can be estimated at seven tons … A significant nuclear weapons arsenal would require much less material … the amount of material is sufficient for hundreds of warheads with a tactical yield of several kilotons.”

President Biden’s great fear has always been that if Russia starts to lose the war, it will use nuclear weapons. He has, therefore, placed limits on use of the weapons we have supplied Ukraine. I am guessing that President Trump has the same fear, and wants to negotiate a Russian/Ukraine peace before Ukraine gets its own nuclear bombs and delivery systems.


If Russia has a “red line” which will trigger its use of nukes, things get a damn side more dangerous when Ukraine has its own nukes and its own “red lines.”

The notion that the country that once had the third largest arsenal of nuclear weapons can’t quickly build enough rudimentary nukes to take out Moscow, St. Petersburg and a half-dozen other major Russia cities is wishful thinking.

If Trump can negotiate an end to the war it will (1) save the U.S. billions; and (2) reduce the threat of a Russian/Ukraine nuclear war with all that entails.

Caption as revised by Editor: “Edging closer to nuclear weapons in Ukraine”

  1.   https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/zelensky-nuclear-weapons-bomb-0ddjrs5hw  

                       First  Published in the Moline Dispatch and Rock Island Argus on November 17, 2024.                                                                                                                                               Copyright 2024, John Donald O'Shea

 

 

The obvious solution to the Hamas/Israeli conflict

  

There is an obvious way for the Arab world to deal with the “Palestinian problem” that no state in the Arab World has been willing to try — without war, and with no Palestinian deaths. Simply put, it’s love your neighbor as yourself. 

Instead, the Arabs and Palestinians have repeatedly gone to war with Israel. They declare that “if Israel will only declare a “cease fire” and negotiate in good faith, the war with Hamas could easily be ended. It is all Israel’s fault.”

That of course, utterly overlooks the Hamas atrocities of October 7, 2023.

It also overlooks the clear words of Hamas’ founding document — “The Covenant of the Islamic Resistance Movement,”18 August 1988:

That document says “Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it. ”It asserts that “Palestine (Israel) is an Islamic Possession consecrated for Muslim generations until Judgement Day."

It sets out the Hamas goal: “to raise the banner of Allah over every inch of Palestine.” (What: no “Two-state solution?”)

The document rejects all negotiations: “Initiatives, and so-called peaceful solutions and international conferences, are in contradiction to the principles of the Islamic Resistance Movement,” and declares “There is no solution for the Palestinian question except through Jihad (Holy War).”

So, how is Israel supposed to negotiate with Hamas that believes (1) “Initiatives, and so-called peaceful solutions and international conferences, are in contradiction to the principles of the Islamic Resistance Movement;" and who believes (2) “There is no solution for the Palestinian question except through Jihad (Holy War).”

Roughly 2 million Palestinians live in Gaza, a 140 square-miles corner of Israel, along the Mediterranean Sea, just north of the Sinai Peninsula.

Wikipedia tells us that “The ‘Arab world’ comprises a large group of 22 countries, mainly located in Western Asia and Northern Africa.” It includes Morocco, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon and Somalia.

The Arab world spans an area of some 5,000,000 sq. miles. Israel, including Gaza and the West Bank, encompasses a mere 11,200 sq. miles.

The Palestinians, living in Gaza, believe that all Israel belongs to them by right of the Mulsim conquests of the Holy Land during the middle-ages.

Since Israel was re-constituted in 1948, the Arabs and Palestinians have started and lost war after war to exterminate Israel. This time, responding to the Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel, the massacre of Israeli 2000 civilians, and the taking of some 100-plus Israeli hostages, Israel has retaliated by reducing Gaza to rubble and killing thousands of Palestinians.

There is a better solution. If the Arabs states are truly acting in good faith, and out of love of the Palestinian people, each of the 22 Arab states could open their borders to perhaps 100,000 Palestinian immigrants. That would eliminate the need to exterminate Israel — unless, of course, the Muslim’s real goal is religious — to reconquer Israel in the name of Allah and the Muslim faith.

Are there examples of Christian nations opening their doors to Muslims? Yes. France has admitted over 3 million Muslims. The “Great Satan” — a/k/a the U.S.A — has admitted about 2,500,000 since 2000. How many have been admitted by Iran? Egypt? Iraq?

First Published in the Moline Dispatch and Rock Island Argus on November 6, 2024. 
Copyright 2024, John Donald O'Shea