Monday, June 8, 2020

Why are the Innocent Being Punished?


No justice system worthy of its name punishes the innocent.

The Book of Proverbs, teaches, "Acquitting the guilty and condemning the righteous - both are detestable to the Lord." Exodus ordains, "The innocent and the righteous slay thou not." These principles are foundational to our Western justice system. Even in descriptions of justice systems that come down to us from antiquity, the innocent aren't punished. Recall the biblical story of Esther.


In The Eumenides, a play written by Aeschylus 2500 years ago, we meet the Furies, ancient goddesses, who mercilessly punish all who commit blood crimes. They pursue Orestes who has killed his mother to avenge her murder of his father. When Orestes entreats the goddess Athena to do justice in his case, she invents a a new system better calculated to do justice - the jury trial. While Aeschylus gives us a dramatic explanation of how juries came to be, Aristotle's The Constitution of the Athenians, describes the real Athenian jury system. But one truth is clear: both the Furies of fable, and the real Athenian jury existed only to punish the guilty; never the innocent.


In medieval Europe to end "justice" by revenge, the Germanic peoples invented the wergild. If the murderer paid the sum of blood money required by the law, his victim's relatives were required to accept the money in lieu of taking revenge on the murderer. Again, the Germanic system was designed only to punish the guilty; not the innocent.

Even in medieval Trials by Ordeal and in Trials by Combat, it was believed God would shield the innocent and suffer the guilty to fail the ordeal and suffer the punishment prescribed by law.


Indeed, no Western system of justice that I am familiar with has ever permitted the taking of revenge on persons who have had no connection whatsoever with the crime committed or on their property. And yet, in 21st century America we see mobs rushing to embrace destruction of the innocent and their property.


Implicit in their rationale, if not explicit, is the presumption that when a black American is murdered by a policeman, that justice will not be done in either the state or federal courts. It would be one thing to await verdict and sentence before concluding that justice will miscarry. It is an entirely different thing to pre-judge that justice will miscarry. But that is a principle "justification" for the mob violence, arson and looting agains the innocent. But even if justice miscarries repeatedly, how can it be justice to take revenge on or punish the innocent?


Is this this way just people think?

Major premise: B1, B2 and B3 were murdered by policemen.

Minor premise: Justice miscarried or is likely to miscarry in their cases.

Conclusion: Therefore, we are justified in creating a new justice system that punishes innocent people who had nothing at all to do with the murders of B1, B2 and B3 which countenances the killing of the innocent, and stealing or destroying their property.


It has also been argued that the "protesters" who riot "simply want the police to take accountability for their actions." But how does burning down and looting the store or home of a person who had no connection whatever with the police misconduct further the goal of having the police "take accountability?"


Getting rid of rotten cops is a good idea. But how does throwing rocks or bottles at a good cop advance that agenda? The good cops are innocent of wrongdoing. How does killing or harming them, or destroying neighborhoods advance the goal of getting rid of rotten cops?


In Minneapolis 4 our of 8000 cops were involved in George Floyd's murder. Were all 8000 cops rotten? How does disbanding the police department and firing good cops advance justice? These protests began because the protesters were certain that George Floyd was innocent of anything whatsoever that could possibly merit the death penalty. The good cops are innocent of anything meriting the loss of their employment. The peaceful people of Minneapolis are innocent of anything that would warrant depriving them of police protection. Recall the biblical story of Sodom?
"For the sake of 10, I will not destroy it."


When I was a boy, my mother taught me that "Two wrongs don't make a right." My Catholic schooling taught, "The ends don't justify the means."


The First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution provides,

"Congress shall make no law ... abridging the freedom of speech, ... or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."

Every American, therefore, has the right to speak against evil, to peaceably assemble, [or demonstrate] and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.


But there is nothing in the First Amendment or any other clause of the Constitution that authorizes any American to engage in riots, mob actions, looting, burglary or arson.Nor is there any language whatever therein that permits revenge, lynchings, and/or vigilantism.


No Constitution of any enlightened state permits the punishment of the innocent, or the theft or destruction of their property. Indeed under our Constitution, property cannot be taken even by the government without paying just compensation, and without due process. Mob violence is the antithesis of due process.



The riots, looting and destruction of property occurring throughout our country clearly demonstrates to any thinking citizen the dangerous folly inherent in doing wrong to right a wrong. Riots, looting and property destruction of the innocent can never be "just means" to accomplish the "end" of bringing the murderers of George Floyd's justice. Wanton destruction of an innocent neighbor or his property can never be justice. In the words of President Lincoln, no man has "a right to do a wrong."


The English-speaking people tried other systems of justice before settling on the jury system. Our founders knew that jury trials, whatever their shortcomings, were essential to guarantee our liberties from kings and dictators. Only those who have not thought it through would eschew the jury trial for the alternative of mob violence,  revenge, lynchings and/or vigilantism.



For 2000 years Christinas have professed to loving one's neighbor as oneself. "Do unto others as you would have them do unto you" is said to be the "Golden Rule." If you are innocent of wrongdoing, would you want your neighbor to burn your house and business because a police officer misused his authority?


In the "Man for all Seasons," St. Thomas More asked Roper, "when you've knocked down all the laws of the realm to get at the Devil, where will you hide when the Devil turns and comes after you?"


When Constitutions are trashed, dictatorships follow. America has a choice.


This piece was published originally on QCOnline on June 7, 2020
Copyright 2020, John Donald O'Shea



































































Wednesday, June 3, 2020

This is the Genius that you Elected



As a guy who spent thirty-two years of his life in public service, my tendency it to assume that public officials who hold press conferences are doing their best to provide us with accurate information. I start with the assumption that the President or Governor is surrounded by experts who educate him as to the facts, and that he has better information than I do.


This week, two things have happened regarding Gov. J. B. Pritzker's handling of the Coronavirus pandemic in Illinois that have disabused me of those assumptions. Indeed, those two things strongly suggest Gov. Pritzker and the "experts" surrounding him are blithering idiots.

                                                               #1

April 20, 2020, the Governor held a press conference. Governor J. B. Pritzker was at the podium.


Reporter. "Earlier this week, the State reported the death of a teenager in Cook County. Are you familiar with this case? If so, is this the State's first teenage death, and if so, can you tell us if the teenager in question had underlying conditions?"

(Governor indicates that Dr. Ngozi Ezike, Director of IL Dept. of Public Health, should answer the question. Pritzker vacates podium. Dr. Ezike takes podium)


Dr. Ezike. "I don't have that information at my disposal at this time. I know that we have had people of all age groups die. I just want to be clear as to the definition of death by Covid. The case definition is very simplistic. It means that at the time of death, it was a Cover positive diagnosis."


(So if you tested positive for Covid, and you are killed in an auto accident or by falling off a cliff, if you are positive for Covid, it's counted as a Cover death? Precisely )

Dr. Ezike. "So that means if you were in Hospice and had already been given a few weeks to live, and if you were also found to have Covid, that would be counted as a Cover death. It means technically, that even if you died of a clear alternate cause, but you had Covid at the same time, it's still listed as a Cover death. So, everyone who's listed as a COVID death doesn't mean that that was the cause of the death, but they had COVID at the time of the death."
           https://week.com/2020/04/20/idph-director-explains-how-covid-deaths-are-classified/


(So, you wonder why the numbers can't be trusted? If a teenager is shot dead while strolling down
Michigan Avenue, that's listed as a Covid death???) 


                                                                      #2


Then on April 22, 2020, Chief Judge Michael McHaney of the 4th Judicial Circuit of Illinois sitting in Clay County gave an opinion in Mainer v. Pritzker, pointing out the utter irrationalitof Governor Pritzker's rules and the application of those rules shutting down non-essential businesses in Illinois:


“Since the inception of this insanity, the following regulations, rules or consequences have occurred: I won't get COVID if I get an abortion, but I will get COVID if I get a colonoscopy.

"Selling pot is essential, but selling goods and services at a family owned business is not. Pot wasn't even legal and pot dispensaries didn't even exist in this state until five months ago and, in that five months, they have become essential, but a family-owned business in existence for five generations is not.

"A family of six can pile in their car and drive to Carlyle Lake without contracting COVID but, if they all get in the same boat, they will.

"We are told that kids rarely contract the virus and sunlight kills it, but summer youth programs, sports programs are cancelled. Four people can drive to the golf course and not get COVID but, if they play in a foursome, they will.

"If I go to Walmart, I won't get COVID but, if I go to church, I will.

"Murderers are released from custody while small business owners are threatened with arrest if they have the audacity to attempt to feed their families.

"These are just a few of examples of rules, regulations and consequences that are arbitrary, capricious, and completely devoid of anything even remotely approaching common sense.


"State's attorneys in this state, county sheriffs, mayors, city councils and county boards have openly and publicly defied these orders followed by threats to withhold funding an revocation of necessary licenses and certifications unless you obey.


"Our economy is shut down because of a flu virus with a 98 percent plus survival rate. Doctors and experts say different things weekly. The defendant cites models in his opposition. The only thing experts will agree on is that all models are wrong and some are useful.

"The Centers for Disease Control now says the virus is not easily spread on surfaces. The defendant in this case orders you to stay home and pronounces that, if you leave the state, you are putting people in danger, but his family members traveled to Florida and Wisconsin because he deems such travel essential. One initial rationale why the rules don't apply to him is that his family farm had animals that needed fed. Try selling that argument to farmers who have had to slaughter their herds because of disruption in the supply chain.


When laws do not apply to those who make them, people are not being governed, they are being ruled. Make no mistake, these executive orders are not laws. They are royal decrees. Illinois citizens are not being governed, they are being ruled. The last time I checked, Illinois citizens are also Americans and Americans don't get ruled. The last time a monarch tried to rule Americans, a shot was fired that was heard around the world. That day led to the birth of a nation consensually governed based upon a document which ensures that on this day in this, any American courtroom tyrannical despotism will always lose and liberty,  freedom and the constitution will always win.”


Published June 3, 2020
Copyright, John Donald O'Shea 2020


Thursday, May 21, 2020

Column: When out on a limb, be careful where to cut

What would you call a man who climbs high up into an oak tree, crawls out to the end of a long branch 35 feet above the ground, and proceeds to cut through the branch which really needs to be cut off — between himself and the trunk?

Do you see a problem? A possible "unintended consequence?"

What do you call a man so intent on fixing an immediate problem that he never considers a significant "unintended consequence?"

In Congress, we call these people Democrats.

Do you think, my characterization is unfair? Let me give you just two conclusive examples that Democrats rush in to fix dire problems while giving no consideration to equally or more dire consequences.


Remember Senator Harry Reid? He was the Democratic majority leader in the U.S. Senate. The Republicans, for partisan political purposes, were blocking President Obama's judicial nominations. So Reid got a brilliant idea. Get rid of the Senate rule requiring a super-majority of 60 votes before a nomination could be considered.

Harry Reid fashioned a rule that allowed for consideration of judicial nominations upon a simple majority vote (51). Obama got his district and appellate judges. But what was the unintended consequence?

President Trump and the Republican Senate have now used "Harry's Rule" to put Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court. In addition, the Republicans have now placed 51 new appellate judges on the bench (51 of 179). The once liberal 9th Circuit Court of Appeals is changing. Ten of the 29 judges on that bench are now Trump's appointees (with a lot of help from Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate Majority Leader).


Which brings us to the second example.


In an all-out effort to keep Kavanaugh off the Supreme Court, the Democrats trotted out a number of women who accused the judge of sexual misconduct. Only one accusation against the judge had even a scent of credibility.

Democrats immediately "climbed the oak," crawled to limb's end and began sawing.

"The woman must be believed."

"The man cannot deny his way out of the accusation."

"A woman would never falsely claim she was sexually assaulted."

"The accused is presumed guilty."

"The man must prove his innocence!"

The tactic wasn't new. It had first been employed when Judge Clarence Thomas was nominated to the Supreme Court. But Republicans, slow on the uptake, made no use of any similar tactic when Judges Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor were nominated by Obama to the Supreme Court.

But then when Kavanaugh was appointed by Trump, Democrats reverted to their playbook.

"A woman would never lie about being sexually assaulted."

"The denial of a man accused of sexual assault can't be believed."

Really?


The notion that a man must be presumed guilty because a woman has made an accusation is worse than stupid. It is unconstitutional and un-American. The Supreme Court long ago held that the presumption of innocence is a fundamental feature of American due process. The same for requiring the accuser to prove his case beyond a reasonable doubt (or at least some proof)!

The Democrats who spouted these insipidities voiced them because they saw an opportunity to fix an immediate problem — keep a conservative off the Supreme Court.

Now, they have an unanticipated problem. Their presidential candidate, Joe Biden, has become the target of Tara Reade's sexual misconduct allegations.

Tara Reade is a woman. Must she be believed simply because she's a woman?

That was the Democrat's rule when Christine Blasey Ford accused Kavanaugh.

"No woman would ever lie about being sexually assaulted."

Is it still the rule?

Democrats said Kavanaugh's word wasn't sufficient to clear him. Is that still the rule in Biden's case?

Democrats said the "presumption of innocence" had no application when a man was seeking appointment to the nation's highest court. How about when he seeks election to the nation's highest office? Democrats said, "the defendant had the burden of proof" in a judicial confirmation hearing. How about in an election on the candidate's fitness to be president?

There is no double-standard when Republicans and Democrats simply disagree. But there is a lamentable double standard when Democrats apply one set of rules to Republican candidates and then repudiate their own rules when a Democrat becomes the target.

Democrats climbed the tree, crawled to branch-end and cut in order to sink a Republican nomination without thought of the long-term consequences.

Let's hope the Republicans don't adopt the Democrats' shameful double standard. Even an inveterate flip-flopper like Joe Biden deserves due process and to have his accuser prove his guilt.


This piece was published originally in the Moline Dispatch and Rock Island Argus on May 21, 2020

Copyright 2020, John Donald O'Shea

Friday, May 8, 2020

Biden is a modern-day McKinley


To win on the first ballot, a candidate for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination needs 1,991 delegates. As of earlier this week, Joe Biden has 1,435 delegates. Poor Bernie Sanders had only 984.

But candidate Biden has a problem, and it's not coronavirus. That's working to "Fairly Honest Joe's" advantage.

The problem is that Joe Biden is a walking gaffe machine. He didn't know Super-Tuesday from Super-Thursday. He doesn't know what state he's in. He's in favor of banning "AR-14s." He introduces his wife as his sister. Worse than that, he has snapped at voters, telling them they are "dog-faced pony soldiers", and "full of sh ..."

To protect Biden, the swamp-dwellers who run the Democratic Party have now convinced Sanders to take a hike. Commit political seppuku! But why?

It's simple. They can't afford to have candidate Biden "lose it" in a nationally televised debate. They were entirely aware that Sanders had the ability to run a verbal shiv deep between "Fairly Honest Joe's" ribs.

U.S. House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, D-South Carolina, a key Biden supporter, has led the movement. In March, ahead of a half dozen primary contests, he said, "... if the night ends the way it has begun, I think it is time for us to shut this primary down, it is time for us to cancel the rest of these debates, because you don’t do anything but get yourself in trouble if you continue in this contest when it’s obvious that the numbers will not shake out for you."

Mr. Clyburn's message: Old Joe, you're only "going to get yourself in trouble."


Party strategist and former Clinton operative James Carville echoed Clyburn: "These voters want to shut this thing down ... I mean, you can just look all across the spectrum of the Democratic Party and people are saying, 'We've made our decision, this is who we're going with.' ... Let's shut this puppy down ... and worry about November. This thing is decided. There's no reason to keep it going not even a day longer. ... We've got to bring this party together; we've got to stop this. ...."


But there's a problem with this strategy. Are you also going to cancel the presidential debates with President Trump for fear of a Biden gaffe? If you were worried about Bernie administering the coup de grâce to old Joe, what's going to happen when Biden comes under Trump's cruise missile barrage?

Between now and the November election, will Joe's handlers continue to limit "old Joe" to seven-minute reads from teleprompters? Or is he going to be locked away in a safe house — or his basement — while his surrogates do his stump-speaking for him?

Impossible you say? If you haven't haven't heard it on CNN and MSNBC, "Fairly Honest Joe" has now been accused of sexual assault by Tara Reade, a former staffer in Biden's Senate office. And what are his surrogates doing? Take a guess.


Of course, there is the 1896 precedent for a candidate hunkering down at home and making all his sanitized speeches from his "front porch", tailored to the true-believers coming to worship at his shrine. Margaret Leech in her book, "In the Days of McKinley", tells how the Republican Party arranged for railroad excursions at reduced rates to Canton, Ohio, so the McKinley true-believers could travel to hear their beloved candidate's brief, scripted speeches.

"President William McKinley's conception of his candidacy was so passive that he at first gave the impression of intending to make no campaign at all. He had decided to stay at home and address only the people who cared to visit him there. Before his nomination, he had made only two speaking engagements, both nonpolitical. Except for three days absence to keep these appointments and one weekend of rest in August, McKinley remained in Canton from the date of his nomination until the election, available at all hours to the public on every day but Sunday.

"McKinley was no match for his younger opponent [William Jennings Bryan] in dramatic presence and oratorical power, and he refused ... to enter the competition. .... The idea of a 'front-porch campaign' seems to have been the natural outgrowth [of McKinley's preference] of ... desiring election without the need to seek it."

"In his campaign speeches [from his front porch], McKinley made no mistakes. He could ill have afforded to do so. A careless word or misplaced allusion would not only have alienated the prideful delegation on his lawn, but would have been spread before the newspaper readers of the country. Though McKinley's addresses seemed unstudied and spontaneous, they had been carefully prepared for him ... with material on background for each group. ..."

So there seems to be a precedent, the model, for the Democrats' campaign plan: Stuff a sock in "old Joe's" mouth.



John Donald O'Shea is a retired circuit court judge and a regular columnist.

This piece was published originally in the Moline Dispatch and Rock Island Argus on May 8, 2020

Copyright 2020, John Donald O'Shea

Saturday, April 25, 2020

What's the harm in marijuana? After all, we need the money



The State of Illinois is broke. Its pensions are grossly underfunded, and it's months behind on paying its service providers. So, where does Illinois find more money?

Democrats in the Illinois Legislature and the governor, a Democrat, came up with a "brilliant idea." Legalize and tax marijuana.

The Illinois Cannabis Regulation and Tax Act was signed into law by Gov. J. B. Pritzker on June 25, 2019. It was amended on December 6, 2019. Illinois thus became the 11th state to legalize the limited use of marijuana.

On January 1, 2020, it became legal in Illinois for adults over 21 to legally purchase cannabis for recreational use from licensed dispensaries across the state. That possession is limited to not more than (a) 30 grams of cannabis flower; (b) 5 grams of cannabis concentrate; or (c) 500 milligrams of THC contained in a cannabis-infused product.

But when you are the 11th state to legalize the "personal use" of "pot," wouldn't reasonable and conscientious legislators and a reasonable and conscientious governor look at federal law under which sale and possession of cannabis still remain illegal?

And wouldn't you look at the experience of Colorado, the first state to legalize it? I recently took a continuing legal education course. One of the presenters was Tim Thoelecke, Jr., a 1986 graduate from Duke University. Thoelecke is the founder and CEO of InOut Labs, based in Morton Grove, Ill. That company is a national provider of employee drug testing and wellness testing services. His company securely processes and delivers thousands of drug tests under private sector and state contracts. He is an active member of many professional associations related to drug testing. I refer to his materials with his consent.


During his presentation, he referenced the following facts:

• Since recreational marijuana was legalized in Colorado, traffic deaths in Colorado in which drivers tested positive for marijuana increased 109%, while all traffic deaths increased 31%.

• Since recreational marijuana was legalized in Colorado, traffic deaths involving drivers who tested positive for marijuana more than doubled from 55 in 2013 to 115 killed in 2018.


According to the National Safety Council:

• Employees who tested positive for marijuana had 55% more industrial accidents, 85% more injuries and 75% greater absenteeism compared to those who tested negative.


According to the 2018 National Survey on Drug Use and Health:

• 11% of full-time employed Americans used illicit drugs in the past 30 days.

• 9.5% of full-time employed Americans used marijuana in the past 30 days.


The two best known cannabinoids in marijuana are delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), and cannabidiol (CBD). THC is psychoactive, CBD is thought not to be.

Legally dispensed cannabis products are labeled to show the CBD and THC content. A product labeled as containing 100% CBD and 0% THC should not trigger a positive drug test for marijuana. But though labeled, a test of such products often does trigger a positive test for marijuana.

Conclusion: As much as 70% of CBD products understate THC content.


In Colorado there are now more marijuana dispensaries than Starbucks, McDonald's and Subway outlets combined.

According to an October 21, 2015, article in Science Daily, 30% of marijuana users suffer from a "Use Disorder," which is defined as, "A problematic pattern of cannabis use leading to clinically significant impairment or distress. Typically includes a strong desire to take the drug, difficulties in controlling its use, persisting in its use despite harmful consequences, a higher priority given to drug use than to other activities and obligations, increased tolerance, and sometimes a physical withdrawal state." In short, users can't stay away from it. Almost sounds like "addiction."

Between 1995 and 2018, samples taken from cannabis seized by Drug Enforcement Agents, show a rising percentage of THC content. In 1995: 3.6% In 2002: 7.2%. In 2010: 10.36%. In 2018: 15.61%.

But quite apart from safety concerns, a reputable study shows that substance abusers are 33% less productive and cost their employers $7,000 annually.


So, if you really think marijuana use has no costs, you belong in the Illinois Legislature or behind the governor's desk.

This piece was published originally in the Moline Dispatch and Rock Island Argus on April 25, 2020

Copyright 2020, John Donald O'Shea












Friday, April 10, 2020

Lessons from the Great Depression



Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker's executive order requires us to "stay at home" and "to close non-essential businesses." So how is the coronavirus going to affect the tax collections and revenues of Illinois and its political subdivisions?

We can look at what happened to state and local revenues during the Great Depression for a parallel. The National Conference of State Legislatures, in a paper titled "State Finance in the Great Depression" (Ronald Snell, 2009), tells what happened to state revenues then.

The Depression quickly affected state and local revenues. Unlike now, in 1927, two-thirds of all state and local government revenues came from property taxes: 20% of state revenues; 82% of local government revenue. For states then, the only comparable revenue source was the motor fuel tax.

Nationwide, the "assessed valuations" of real estate fell from 1929 through 1936. They then began to rise — slowly. Nationwide, assessments dropped 20%; in Illinois, 40%. Property tax collections fell. Local government property tax collections did not reach 1927 levels until 1944. For states, not until 1952.

Consequently, property tax collections fell for state and local governments. State collections in 1932 were 11% below the 1927 level. They fell another 30% by 1936. Local tax collections fell less abruptly, but 1934 collections were 13% below the 1927 level. State collections fell more sharply because of their base in corporate and utility properties.

Initially, the state and local government response was to continue spending at approximately the level of spending in previous years. Shortfalls were balanced by a small increase in federal aid to the states, continued growth in motor fuel taxes and borrowing. In 1932, gross revenues from all sources and spending were similar in amount and purpose to what they had been in 1927 — for both state and local governments.

Then came the deluge. Rapid growth in unemployment posed new demands for public assistance that state and local governments were unprepared to meet. In 1927, the states' direct spending on public welfare ("relief") was $40 million, or about 3% of their general spending. Local governments spent $111 million, less than 2% of general expenditures. Prior to the Depression, assistance to low income and destitute people was not a governmental priority. That was largely left to private charities. But simultaneous agricultural and urban industrial unemployment soon overwhelmed both private and public sources of public assistance.

State and local governments increased spending on public assistance programs during the Hoover administration (1929-1933). State spending grew to $74 million in 1932. Local spending more than tripled from 1927 to 1932, rising to $370 million. (This was nearly 6% of general spending). But these efforts were insufficient.

That being so, an early initiative of the Roosevelt administration was enactment of the Federal Emergency Relief Act in May 1933. The act provided for $500 million in grants to state governments (at a time when a million dollars was still a lot of money), in order to "aid in meeting the costs of furnishing relief and work relief and in relieving the hardship and suffering caused by unemployment in the form of money, service, materials, and/or commodities to provide the necessities of life to persons in need as a result of the present emergency..."

During the Great Depression two-thirds of all state and local revenues came from property taxes. Today, 56% of the revenue collected by Illinois comes from income taxes, 34% from sales taxes and the remaining 10% from other sources, such as excise taxes.


So what happens when all "non-essential businesses" shut down? Closed businesses collect no sales taxes. And if they are corporations and have no income, they pay no corporate income taxes.

This week it was reported that almost 17 million Americans had filed jobless claims over the past few weeks, including nearly 500,000 Illinois residents. If people have no income, they pay no individual state income tax.

For fiscal year 2020, Illinois is spending $18 billion on healthcare, $15 billion on pensions, $9 billion on education, $7 billion on welfare and $5 billion on interest. During this shut down, those costs aren't decreasing. Expect healthcare and welfare to increase. No income and no sales means no taxes. And Illinois, unlike the federal government, cannot print money.

If 500,000 people earning a minimum wage of $600 per week are out of work for a week, that's $300 million of lost taxable income. At 5%, that's a $15 million weekly loss to Illinois. Add to that weekly corporate income tax and sales tax losses.

Illinois, as of March 22, had a $7.5 billion backlog of unpaid bills and additional underfunded pension obligations. Diminished tax revenues will make things worse.

It's not hard to see why President Trump aspires to re-open businesses.


This piece was published originally in the Moline Dispatch and Rock Island Argus on April 10, 2020

Copyright 2020, John Donald O'Shea

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

FLU EPIDEMICS TODAY AND YESTERDAY


I have been asked to write on two questions:

First, by what authority did Gov. J.B. Ptitzker issue his "Stay at Home" and "Close all Non-Essential Businesses" Coronavirus Executive Order?

Second, were quarantine and isolation used by public authorities during the 1918-19 Spanish Flu Epidemic?

(1) Governor's Powers

As early as 1824, the Supreme Court in Gibbons v. Ogden referred to a state’s authority to quarantine under its "police powers." Each State has "police powers" to protect the health, safety and welfare of those people in the State. Then, In 1902, the Court in Compagnie Francaise v. Louisiana State Board of Health, directly addressed a state’s power to quarantine an entire geographic area. In that case, both the State law and its implementation were upheld as valid exercises of the State’s "police powers."

So, where exactly does Gov. Pritzker get power to issue his Coronavirus Executive Orders?

The Illinois Legislature has "conferred upon the Governor" specific powers to deal with emergencies and disasters in the Illinois Emergency Management Act. That Act defines "disasters" to include "epidemics or public health emergencies." It authorizes the Governor by "proclamation to declare that a disaster exists."

Once he so declares, the Act gives him power to "To control ingress or egress to and from a disaster area, the movement of persons within the area, and the occupancy of premises therein."
It further give him power to "Control or restrict the sale or distribution of food, materials, goods or services; and to exercise ... any other powers ... as may be necessary to promote and secure safety and protection of the civilian population.

Clearly under these two grants of power, the Governor has power to order people to "stay at home," to "close non-essential business," and to order quarantine or isolation.

(2) Spanish Flu Quarentines

So what did Chicago authorities do when the Spanish Flu struck in 1918?

By 1918, Chicago had 2.7 million residents. The Flu arrived on September 18. It seemingly first showed at Great Lakes Naval Training Station when a few sailors got sick. Naval officials acted quickly in an attempt to contain the disease there by instituting isolation and quarantine of some 50,000 sailors.

By late-September, it appeared that the epidemic at Great Lakes station had crested. New cases were decreasing.

In Chicago, Health Commissioner Dr. John Dill Robertson announced that officials had “the Spanish influenza situation well in hand now.” To monitor the situation, Robertson made influenza a "reportable disease" on September 16, but took no further action.

Robertson guessed wrong. Chicago's epidemic was just beginning. By September 21, Chicago experienced a sudden marked rise in the number of deaths due to acute respiratory diseases. By September 30, there were 260 cases in the city. Robertson told residents to prepare to isolate themselves should they become sick. “Every victim of the disease is commanded to go to his home and stay there.” And he did ask the Chief of Police to have his officers stop all persistent sneezers and coughers who did not cover their faces with handkerchiefs. Churches, schools, theaters, restaurants, streetcars, and other places where people congregated were were allowed to remain open, but ordered to maintain proper ventilation.

As the flu worsened, Illinois Influenza Advisory Commission intervened. Its first step was to pass a binding resolution on October 11 banning public dancing in all clubs, cabarets, and halls and to prohibit all public funerals across the state. By then, Chicago physicians were reporting as many as 1200 new cases a day, and climbing.

On October 15, the IIAC closed all theaters, movie houses, night schools, and “all other places of public amusement.” Public schools were not closed, but attendance dropped 50%.

By October 29, new cases in Illinois were on the decline. The epidemic was abating.

The Spanish Flu Epidemic of 1918-19 is thought to be the third worst pandemic in recorded history. It took between 40 and 50 million lives. The New World Smallpox Pandemic of 1520 is estimated to have killed 56 million. The Black Death from 1347-51 killed 200 million. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/


The Spanish Flu affected by my family. My grandmother died in 1919 in a rural area of Canada of complications from the Flu. Her obituary notice reads,

"One of the saddest deaths which has occurred for a long time, happened, on Wednesday, from the effects of influenza followed by pneumonia, when Mary L. died in her 41st year. ... The news of her death has cast a gloom over the countryside. A very sad feature in connection with her illness was that twin babies were born on Monday, and lived only long enough to be baptized. Besides her husband, 12 children, 5 girls and 7 boys are left motherless ...."


This piece was published originally in the Moline Dispatch and Rock Island Argus on March 31, 2020

Copyright 2020, John Donald O'Shea