If rail passenger service between Moline and Chicago is a money-making proposition, why was service dropped in 1978? Why hasn't some railroad or entrepreneur re-instituted service during the last 38 years?
A May 12 Dispatch/Argus editorial endorsed the project.
"The overall project cost is $222 million with $177 million coming from the federal government. The state's commitment is $45 million. The Moline ... station is also being funded by the state."
It is claimed that the new Amtrak route will bring "businessmen, families and tourists to and from the Quad-Cities, and provide jobs."
"It has been estimated the Q-C route would produce as many as 200,000 (548 per day) passengers per year."
Sound good? Here's what an April 14, 2008 Amtrak feasibility study projected:
1. One-way trip from Moline to Chicago:
a) 4 hours using existing tracks; b) 3 hours, 35 minutes on hours improved 60 mph tracks; c) or 3
hours 20 minutes on improved 79 mph tracks.
2. Estimated the annual ridership (round trip):
a) 90,000 on existing tracks; b) 102,000 on 60 mph tracks; c) 110,000 on 79 mph tracks.
3. Projected route revenues:
a) $2.1 million on existing tracks; b) $2.4 million on 60 mph tracks; c) $2.6 million on 79 mph tracks.
4. Estimated annual operating expenses:
a) $8.4 million on unimproved tracks; b) $8.4 on 60 mph tracks; c) $8.5 million on 79 mph tracks. (amtrak.com/servlet/ContentServer/AM_Content_C/1241267400916/1241245669129).
In short, as per the Amtrak feasibility study on unimproved, or on 60 mph tracks, the train to Chicago will lose $6 million annually; on 79 mph tracks, it will lose a mere $5.9 million.
What if the losses are understated? Rail and Reason, in an April 13, 2013 piece captioned, "Seat mile and passenger mile costs for Amtrak," says they are.
The Hoosier State Route (Chicago to Indianapolis) computes:
-- Cost per passenger mile: $0.835;
-- Ticket yield per mile: $0.153. (A loss of $0.682 per mile).
The Kansas City, Mo., to St. Louis Route seat mile and passenger totals were:
-- Cost per passenger mile: $0.427;
-- Ticket yield per mile: $0.138. (A loss of $0.289 per mile).
Assuming 79 mph tracks (best scenario) from Moline to Chicago, a round trip would take 6 hours and 40 minutes, excluding time going to the Moline station, going from the Chicago station to the ultimate Chicago destination, returning to the Chicago station, and getting home after disembarking at Moline.
The one-way adult fare for the 280 mile trip from St. Louis to Kansas City, Mo., is $72. For the 80 mile trip from Chicago to Milwaukee, $28. Fares, therefore, are roughly 25 cents a mile. Extrapolating, the cost of a 180-mile one-way trip from Moline to Chicago: $45 -- exclusive of bus or cab fare to get to and from the ultimate Chicago destination.
Based on these Amtrak figures, the Moline to Chicago route figures to lose $6 million annually. Assuming 100,000 round-trips per year, that means each round-trip loses $60. Each one-way trip, $30. If actual ridership is less than 200,000 one-way trips per year, the losses are proportionally greater.
There are but two ways for the proposed Moline/Chicago route to break even: set one-way prices at about $75 (and assume no ridership decrease), or subsidize the route -- indefinitely.
In her 2014 report, "Illinois Unfunded Debt 2014," Illinois Comptroller Leslie Munger painted a bleak picture of Illinois finances. The state owes $43.2 billion on its bonds, and $26.5 billion on other liabilities. This does not include the $111 billion in unfunded pension benefits, and $46 billion owed in unfunded retiree health care benefits.
Illinois is broke. To waste $45 million as capital to get a passenger train running that is projected to lose $6 million a year is nuts. In my opinion, this smells of crony capitalism.
So, who really is pushing for the train? Who's going to get the $177 million federal and $45 million state investments? The owners of the historic O'Rourke building? Construction companies upgrading the track? Who?
And the taxpayers get to make up the annual $6 million losses!
Posted: Wednesday, May 1, 2016 - QCOline.com
Copyright 2016
John Donald O'Shea
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