The December 25, 2019 Moline high temperature was 62°. Climate Change? Man-made climate change?
If so, I would expect Lake Michigan's water levels records to show a slow, steady, increase over the last century.
In September, I spent a few days in Door County, WI in a cabin along the shore of Lake Michigan.
Along that shore, the owner of the cabin has erected a deck that sits atop a rocky cliff. You can stand on that deck and watch the waves crash against the cliff. But this year, something was different.
Last year, the rocky bottom at wave's ebb was covered by only a few inches of water.
This year, when the water ebbed there was a foot or more of water over the rocks. Global warming?
When I was a boy, in the 1940s and 1950s, we vacationed on the Green Bay side of the Door Peninsula annually. The resort had a "L-shaped" breakwater-pier that protruded some 50 feet into the bay. 60 feet out off the breakwater, the resort had anchored a raft.
Some years, the water came up to within a foot of the top of the breakwater. When we swam off the end of the pier, it was over our heads. Other summers, the water was down a good three to four feet from the top of the breakwater. It was only about 4 feet deep. From the raft when the water was down, we could see the rocky bottom; not so, when it was up.
I can recall the resort owner saying that the water levels changed in 7-year cycles. For 7 years, the water would be low; for the next 7, high.
Last year, the rocky bottom at wave's ebb was covered by only a few inches of water.
This year, when the water ebbed there was a foot or more of water over the rocks. Global warming?
When I was a boy, in the 1940s and 1950s, we vacationed on the Green Bay side of the Door Peninsula annually. The resort had a "L-shaped" breakwater-pier that protruded some 50 feet into the bay. 60 feet out off the breakwater, the resort had anchored a raft.
Some years, the water came up to within a foot of the top of the breakwater. When we swam off the end of the pier, it was over our heads. Other summers, the water was down a good three to four feet from the top of the breakwater. It was only about 4 feet deep. From the raft when the water was down, we could see the rocky bottom; not so, when it was up.
I can recall the resort owner saying that the water levels changed in 7-year cycles. For 7 years, the water would be low; for the next 7, high.
These things caused me to wonder, if there were records of the water levels in Lake Michigan over the last 100 years? Indeed, there are: The "Great Lakes Water Level Table(s) for Lake Michigan-Huron" from 1918 until the present.
As we vacationed in September this year, all my random samples below are for the month of September. (I could have picked any month). Between 1918 and 1998, I sampled every fifth year. From 1998 to the present I sampled every year.
1918 580.51 (feet)
1923 578.61
1928 579.40
1933 577.14
1938 578.54
1943 580.45
1948 579.30
1953 580.77
1958 577.66
1963 577.36
1968 579.33
1973 581.40
1978 579.86
1983 580.48
1988 579.00
1993 580.15
1998 579.66
1999 579.23
2000 577.72
2001 577.46
2002 578.22
2003 577.23
2004 578.35
2005 577.72
2006 577.56
2007 577.23
2008 578.02
2009 578.64
2010 577.95
2011 577.85
2012 576.97
2013 577.56
2014 579.20
2015 579.72
2016 579.99
2017 580.48
2018 580.51
2019 581.63
If "global warming" is causing these changes, one would expect a more or less steady rise in the lake levels over the 100 year period, or at least since folks have been claiming "global warming." Instead, the lake levels in September of 2018 are precisely the same as they were 101 years ago in September of 1918: 580.51 feet.* The 2019 level is only 11/100th of an inch higher than the 1973 level.
So has there been a steady uptick in the lake levels? No. Periodic change? Yes.
Keith Kompoltowicz, Chief of Watershed Hydrology, Detroit District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, explains that the reason for the high water levels is heavy precipitation over the last three years..
“It’s been very wet across the Great Lakes basin over the last several months and years. ... Fall 2018 was very wet and the ground was saturated heading into last winter that saw a very healthy snow pack. ... That was followed by heavy spring rainfall."
Of course, there are those who believe that "climate change" explains the heavy precipitation since 2017. But does "climate change" also explain the low 577 foot levels seen from 2000 thru 2013?
Oh, by the way ... From 1981 thru 1987, the lake levels were just as high as they have been for the last three years.
1981 580.05
1982 579.56
1983 580.28
1984 580.77
So, is there anything in this data which causes me to believe the world will probably end in 12 years? Hardly.
Was the resort owner correct when he labeled the changes as "cyclical?" The data tends to support that. I'm therefore inclined to wait a few years to see if the "cycle theory" proves true, and to see if water levels again drop, before I'll be willing to consider dismantling our economy.
*. The numbers were adjusted in 1955 and 1985 to take account of the movement of the earth's crust. The International Great Lakes Datum for 1955 set the level of Lake Michigan at 177.795 feet; the 1985 datam, at 178.065 feet.
As we vacationed in September this year, all my random samples below are for the month of September. (I could have picked any month). Between 1918 and 1998, I sampled every fifth year. From 1998 to the present I sampled every year.
1918 580.51 (feet)
1923 578.61
1928 579.40
1933 577.14
1938 578.54
1943 580.45
1948 579.30
1953 580.77
1958 577.66
1963 577.36
1968 579.33
1973 581.40
1978 579.86
1983 580.48
1988 579.00
1993 580.15
1998 579.66
1999 579.23
2000 577.72
2001 577.46
2002 578.22
2003 577.23
2004 578.35
2005 577.72
2006 577.56
2007 577.23
2008 578.02
2009 578.64
2010 577.95
2011 577.85
2012 576.97
2013 577.56
2014 579.20
2015 579.72
2016 579.99
2017 580.48
2018 580.51
2019 581.63
If "global warming" is causing these changes, one would expect a more or less steady rise in the lake levels over the 100 year period, or at least since folks have been claiming "global warming." Instead, the lake levels in September of 2018 are precisely the same as they were 101 years ago in September of 1918: 580.51 feet.* The 2019 level is only 11/100th of an inch higher than the 1973 level.
So has there been a steady uptick in the lake levels? No. Periodic change? Yes.
Keith Kompoltowicz, Chief of Watershed Hydrology, Detroit District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, explains that the reason for the high water levels is heavy precipitation over the last three years..
“It’s been very wet across the Great Lakes basin over the last several months and years. ... Fall 2018 was very wet and the ground was saturated heading into last winter that saw a very healthy snow pack. ... That was followed by heavy spring rainfall."
Of course, there are those who believe that "climate change" explains the heavy precipitation since 2017. But does "climate change" also explain the low 577 foot levels seen from 2000 thru 2013?
Oh, by the way ... From 1981 thru 1987, the lake levels were just as high as they have been for the last three years.
1981 580.05
1982 579.56
1983 580.28
1984 580.77
So, is there anything in this data which causes me to believe the world will probably end in 12 years? Hardly.
Was the resort owner correct when he labeled the changes as "cyclical?" The data tends to support that. I'm therefore inclined to wait a few years to see if the "cycle theory" proves true, and to see if water levels again drop, before I'll be willing to consider dismantling our economy.
*. The numbers were adjusted in 1955 and 1985 to take account of the movement of the earth's crust. The International Great Lakes Datum for 1955 set the level of Lake Michigan at 177.795 feet; the 1985 datam, at 178.065 feet.
Published in the Moline Dispatch and Rock Island Argus on January 3, 2020
Copyright 2020, John Donald O'Shea
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